Post by Beelzebibble on Jul 23, 2011 21:45:02 GMT -5
I'm a bit late in explaining this, because the computer ate the file in which I originally typed it up. (That was a lie. The computer ate nothing. I accidentally deleted the file myself. I will be man enough to admit it. Unlike some!)
I briefly mentioned a betting pool back in the rules topic, citing it as a reason not to necessarily trust any help offered to you even by a player who's been executed and can no longer beat you at the game. It's time to explain what I mean. Running throughout the duration of The Mole will be a betting pool in which people -- anyone on the board, really -- can gamble to win EP prizes upon the game's conclusion.
There's nothing to it. All you have to do is PM me naming the player who you think is the Mole, and/or the player whom you expect to win the game. When the game ends, if you turn out to be correct on either count, you win n2 EP, where n is the number of players still competing in the game at the time you cast your bet. If you're correct on both counts -- who the Mole is and who the winner is -- then you'll get twice the EP!
Now, you're allowed to change either or both of your bets at any time throughout the game. All you want. You only have to PM me again. But there's where that n2 comes in. Sure, you could swap your bets around every episode if you wanted to, but you'd be wagering for exponentially diminishing returns. If you changed your bets during the last episode, or waited to cast a bet until then, you'd only be looking at a measly 9 EP per winning bet. So you should think carefully before adjusting your bets once you cast them: with every player that gets executed, any new bets become likelier to be correct, but less lucrative.
More boring game theory stuff under the spoiler, skip if uninterested:
Anyone can place or change a bet, even spectators. That's why I'm making this an announcement on all boards for the time being, although not for long. Though I'm keeping the thread locked so as to make sure no one accidentally posts a bet here in public.
Remember, since we still have all twelve players, if you cast two bets right now and were correct about both the Mole and the winner, you would take home a whopping 288 EP -- 144 for each. That's a whole lot of profit for nothing but a couple of well-aimed guesses.
Think about it.
I briefly mentioned a betting pool back in the rules topic, citing it as a reason not to necessarily trust any help offered to you even by a player who's been executed and can no longer beat you at the game. It's time to explain what I mean. Running throughout the duration of The Mole will be a betting pool in which people -- anyone on the board, really -- can gamble to win EP prizes upon the game's conclusion.
There's nothing to it. All you have to do is PM me naming the player who you think is the Mole, and/or the player whom you expect to win the game. When the game ends, if you turn out to be correct on either count, you win n2 EP, where n is the number of players still competing in the game at the time you cast your bet. If you're correct on both counts -- who the Mole is and who the winner is -- then you'll get twice the EP!
Now, you're allowed to change either or both of your bets at any time throughout the game. All you want. You only have to PM me again. But there's where that n2 comes in. Sure, you could swap your bets around every episode if you wanted to, but you'd be wagering for exponentially diminishing returns. If you changed your bets during the last episode, or waited to cast a bet until then, you'd only be looking at a measly 9 EP per winning bet. So you should think carefully before adjusting your bets once you cast them: with every player that gets executed, any new bets become likelier to be correct, but less lucrative.
More boring game theory stuff under the spoiler, skip if uninterested:
Why did I say this provides a reason not to trust executed players' input? Well, look at it this way. The Mole is fixed. You can't change who the Mole is, so betting on their identity is really just for fun. The only challenge there is deciding how early on you feel confident in staking a bet on their identity. But betting on the winner is a whole different story. That's because any of the eleven contestants could turn out to be the winner, and everyone -- everyone -- can exert some influence over who that winner turns out to be, by sharing, mangling, or withholding information.
Say a player A, early on in the game while there are still quite a few players left, bets that player B is going to win the game. Then A gets executed. If everything were sunshine and daisies, A would be a big old pal and PM everyone still in the game saying "Hey, here's who I voted for in that last quiz, I guess they must not be the Mole, hope that helps." But now that A has a lot of EP riding on B's victory, A has incentive to try to take hold of events and pull some strings to help ensure B's victory. A might send truthful help to B, but then turn right around and send false info to other players, trying to lead them astray and get them executed. If he were a real bastard, A might even pretend he bet on C, D, etc. to win the game, specifically to earn their trust, and then feed them lies!
So you see, the very existence of this betting pool, even if not a solitary soul actually placed a bet throughout the entire game, means that you can never completely trust any information anyone sends you. Doesn't matter if they're not playing the game anymore. Doesn't matter if they were never playing in the first place. They could still be trying to sucker-punch you for fun and profit!
Does that sound excessively underhanded? I can already tell it wouldn't be too much for some of you. The sooner you recognize that this is just a game and that playful backstabbing is what it's all about, the more you'll get out of it...
Say a player A, early on in the game while there are still quite a few players left, bets that player B is going to win the game. Then A gets executed. If everything were sunshine and daisies, A would be a big old pal and PM everyone still in the game saying "Hey, here's who I voted for in that last quiz, I guess they must not be the Mole, hope that helps." But now that A has a lot of EP riding on B's victory, A has incentive to try to take hold of events and pull some strings to help ensure B's victory. A might send truthful help to B, but then turn right around and send false info to other players, trying to lead them astray and get them executed. If he were a real bastard, A might even pretend he bet on C, D, etc. to win the game, specifically to earn their trust, and then feed them lies!
So you see, the very existence of this betting pool, even if not a solitary soul actually placed a bet throughout the entire game, means that you can never completely trust any information anyone sends you. Doesn't matter if they're not playing the game anymore. Doesn't matter if they were never playing in the first place. They could still be trying to sucker-punch you for fun and profit!
Does that sound excessively underhanded? I can already tell it wouldn't be too much for some of you. The sooner you recognize that this is just a game and that playful backstabbing is what it's all about, the more you'll get out of it...
Anyone can place or change a bet, even spectators. That's why I'm making this an announcement on all boards for the time being, although not for long. Though I'm keeping the thread locked so as to make sure no one accidentally posts a bet here in public.
Remember, since we still have all twelve players, if you cast two bets right now and were correct about both the Mole and the winner, you would take home a whopping 288 EP -- 144 for each. That's a whole lot of profit for nothing but a couple of well-aimed guesses.
Think about it.